March 15, 2013

ACC Tournament predictions

Jonathan Crighton 
Staff Writer

Hottest team: Duke. The second-seeded Blue Devils are now 3-0 with Kelly back, and they have yet to lose a game when he's in the starting lineup this season. Mike Krzyzewski said after his team blew out UNC on Saturday that his team is still working on its chemistry, but it's looking awfully close to being back in full force. 

Coldest team: Clemson. The Tigers have lost six straight entering Thursday's first-round matchup with Florida State, and that's with senior forward Devin Booker averaging 16.5 PPG during that stretch. FSU swept the season series by a combined eight points in January. 

Sleeper pick: Virginia. The fourth-seeded Cavaliers didn't make things easy on themselves, following their home upset of then-third-ranked Duke with last-second losses at Boston College and FSU (before that overtime survival against Maryland). But if they can continue their hallmark of making things difficult for their opponents, they could make things interesting. Especially if they can get Joe Harris back on an offensive tear. 

Potential upset victim: UNC. Coach Roy Williams has said he's going to stick with his four-guard starting lineup, but which team will show up? Will it be the discombobulated, soft-looking squad that took questionable shots in the blowout loss to Duke? Or the aggressive, fast, sharpshooting team that won six straight and looked like a Top-25 team before that? 


Best first-round matchup: Um, the first day doesn't look all that thrilling. But fifth-seeded N.C. State vs. twelfth-seeded Virginia Tech could get interesting, if Green gets some help from his Hokies teammates. That's what happened in February, when Jarell Eddie and Marshall Wood also scored in double figures to push the game to overtime; the Wolfpack eventually won by four. 

Best potential quarterfinal: Virginia-N.C. State. The Cavs, who won the only regular-season game between these two by three points, need a win to boost their slippery NCAA tournament résumé. The fifth-seeded Wolfpack, which lost its chance at a Thursday bye with a final-game loss at FSU, need to boost momentum. Defense versus offense, and the winner likely gets another shot at Miami in the semifinals. 

Pick: Duke. The Blue Devils have won the ACC tournament in 10 of the past 14 seasons, and half of those came after they didn't win the regular-season title. Duke boasts a .917 winning percentage in neutral-site games over the past four seasons. Add in the Kelly factor, the Devils are 18-0 this season when the senior in the starting lineup, and they have to be the favorite in this tournament.